Sep 20, 2024, 10:00 AM ET

To assemble an awesome fantasy basketball roster, it starts with a great draft. And to have a great draft, you need to know which players to go after and which to avoid.

So which players will exceed their average draft position (ADP) this season? Who will take their game to another level? And which players pose the biggest risk of taking a step backward?

Our fantasy basketball experts André Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick and Steve Alexander offer their top sleepers, breakouts and busts for the 2024-25 NBA season.

Sleepers

Sleeper: A player who will far surpass his average draft position (ADP) in standard ESPN leagues.

Scoot Henderson, PG, Portland Trail Blazers

Karabell: You shouldn’t draft Henderson because he was the No. 3 pick in the 2023 draft. You should draft him because he played most of his raw, trying rookie season at 19 years old, and he showed clear signs of improvement late in the season. He averaged a cool 18.9 PPG, 7.9 APG and 2.3 SPG over the final 14 contests. Henderson is going to run an exciting, young offense, and he will play far better in Year 2, taking and making better shots, executing better passes with fewer turnovers and shaking some of the inefficiency concerns.

Shaedon Sharpe, SG/SF, Portland Trail Blazers

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Snellings: Sharpe was considered perhaps the most talented player in the 2022 NBA draft, but his youth and relative inexperience caused him to slide to the Trail Blazers. After a promising rookie season where he showed flashes of his upside, Sharpe began his sophomore campaign with a bang. In his first 21 starts, he averaged 19.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.7 APG, 2.3 3PG and 1.0 SPG in 37.6 MPG before veteran Malcolm Brogdon ate into his role and eventually an abdominal injury ended his season. But on a rebuilding Trail Blazers squad, the now-healthy Sharpe should be able to pick up where he left off and develop into an impact player in Year 3.

Trey Murphy III, SG/SF, New Orleans Pelicans

McCormick: Already one of the league’s most efficient wing scorers through just three pro campaigns, Murphy has posted a blistering 63.3% true shooting clip since the start of the 2022-23 season. Last season was abbreviated as he recovered from surgery, but Murphy enters this season healthy and primed to leap to a new tier of 3-and-D production. In addition to floor-spacing value, Murphy sustains a strong steal clip. In his 23 starts for the Pelicans last season, Murphy averaged 8.3 3-point attempts per game en route to more than16 PPG, suggesting he is already an elite specialist in the Klay Thompson mold. With an ADP well past 100, Murphy is an ideal midround selection this fall.

Cam Thomas, SG, Brooklyn Nets

Alexander: He’s been going around pick 90 in ESPN leagues and helped me win a 30-team league last season. He won’t come nearly as cheap as he did a year ago, but the Nets are a bad team and Thomas should get all the minutes and shots he can handle. I’m not really worried about a tanking shutdown since he’ll be just 23 years old on opening night. And no, I’m also not worried about Ben Simmons buzzkilling him. Thomas has the tools to do it all and I expect his overall stat line to improve substantially this season.

Amen Thompson, SF/PF, Houston Rockets

Moody: After a promising rookie season, Thompson has been making waves this offseason. He’s been working out with the Rockets in Los Angeles and was part of the Team USA Select squad, scrimmaging against the team that went on to win the gold medal in Paris. With all this momentum, he’s looking primed for an even better sophomore year. Thompson’s impact goes beyond just scoring. He contributes across multiple stat categories and is a key player the Rockets want to build around. While he averaged just 22.4 MPG last season, he was incredibly productive when he played 30-plus minutes. In those games, he averaged 15.0 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.5 SPG and 0.8 BPG.

Breakouts

Breakout: A player who will leap into or close to the upper echelon of players at his position for the first time because of a dramatic increase in production compared to his previous seasons.

Jalen Johnson, PF, Atlanta Hawks

Alexander: We may have been heading toward a breakout season for Johnson last year, but a weak foul from Kyle Kuzma ruined that dream. Johnson played just 56 games due in part to a right ankle sprain, as well as a left wrist injury, thanks to a Kuzma block attempt. Dejounte Murray is gone and Johnson, along with Trae Young, will be asked to do most of the heavy lifting in Atlanta. Hopefully, Johnson can stay healthy. He’ll enter the season at just 22 years old and will turn 23 in December.

Editor’s Picks

2 Related

McCormick: Johnson entered the 2023-24 season averaging just 4.9 points per game for his career, so his leap to 52 starts in his third season while approaching a nightly double-double already represents some form of a breakout. That said, injuries cut his ascendant season short amid a down season in Atlanta. Set for a starring role as the resident lob threat and glass cleaner alongside Trae Young, Johnson’s current ADP of 96th overall affords investors a ton of room for profit. It’s not just scoring and rebounding that make Johnson such an intriguing value pick, he also averaged an awesome two stocks (steals plus blocks) per game last season. Don’t be surprised if Johnson emerges as a league-swaying frontcourt force as early as this winter.

Karabell: Some may believe Johnson already broke out, averaging 16 PPG and 8.7 RPG in his third NBA season, but he is hardly done improving. The Hawks moved on from Murray, and there is little reason why Johnson cannot handle a larger role in the offense and average at least 20 PPG. This team also lacks rebounding. Why not a 20-10 season? Johnson is an active player on both ends of the court, which we like in fantasy, and he’s capable of finishing among the top 10 in steals, too. This is a potential top-50 fantasy option falling too far in drafts.

RJ Barrett, SG/SF, Toronto Raptors

Moody: Barrett thrived after being traded to Toronto, especially in terms of his efficiency. In 32 games with the Raptors, he averaged 21.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG and 4.1 APG while shooting an impressive 55.3% from the field. He played some of the best basketball of his career. As a reminder, he was drafted third overall by the Knicks in 2019. Now, the stage is set for Barrett to have the best season of his career. If he can maintain those averages for a full season, Barrett could find himself in the running for the Most Improved Player Award.

Jalen Green, SG, Houston Rockets

Snellings: Green was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft and has proven to be a plus scorer, but he’s had trouble with consistency. When Ime Udoka took over as the head coach, he particularly wanted to institute a level of professionalism that required Green to improve to earn his minutes and opportunity. After a slower start to the season, Green burst out to average 29.2 PPG from Feb. 29 to March 29 as the Rockets made a hard playoff push. I like that as a preview for what we might expect from him more consistently this season.

Busts

Bust: A player who is expected to be a solid starter in standard ESPN leagues but will fail to live up to those expectations this season.

Kawhi Leonard, SF/PF, LA Clippers

Karabell: Orlando’s Paolo Banchero led my Do Not Draft list, mainly because he is going too early in ESPN ADP, but at least he should be a durable, productive player. I have greater concerns about Leonard, for fantasy managers may believe the 68 games he played in last season is a sign of the future. Perhaps, but Leonard is already compromised with a knee injury, and we should remember he played no more than 52 games in the prior three seasons, missing one of them entirely. Even with a bump in minutes last season, Leonard’s scoring, rebounding and assist numbers fell from prior seasons. Be careful, even in Round 4 or 5.

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Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers

Alexander: Embiid hasn’t been able to stay healthy throughout his career and looked, for the exception of one game, lethargic playing for Team USA in the Olympics over the summer. He’s a fantastic fantasy baller when he’s on the court, but he simply can’t be trusted at this point. I’m not drafting him even if he drops, as it’s just too hard to win in fantasy if your first- (or second-) round pick is spending as much time in street clothes as he is on the court. And the arrival of Paul George isn’t going to help, either.

Keldon Johnson, SF, San Antonio Spurs

McCormick: Not that he’s some exciting pick, but with Johnson going just past 100 overall in average draft position, he’s going to be relied on in fantasy frontcourts to really contribute. The holdup in trusting Johnson is that, in a rare case, he saw fewer minutes, touches and shots last season after a breakout 2022-23 effort. It’s looking more like his scoring spike in his fourth season was part of pacing a lottery-bound team in offensive opportunities. The Spurs’ rotation is now much, much different, with gifted young players mixing with proven late-career vets in a new-look Popovich concoction centered around Victor Wembanyama. Johnson is unlikely to start or find a truly specialized role for San Antonio, instead shifting to a complementary role that extinguishes any momentum left from his days as a bankable scoring source. Without very loud defensive rates and subpar rebounding percentages for a forward, I’d rather let a competitor take Johnson’s low-ceiling profile.

Dejounte Murray set career highs in points per game (22.5) and 3-pointers (201) last season. How will he fare in his first season in New Orleans? Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Dejounte Murray, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans

Moody: The Pelicans traded for Murray this summer, finally landing the true point guard they’ve been missing. He’s got the skills to boost New Orleans’ offense and help on defense, which is great for the team. However, it might not be as good for fantasy managers. Last season, Murray had a usage rate of 27.7% with the Hawks, which was one of the highest in his career and especially impressive alongside Trae Young, who’s known for his high usage. But things will change with the Pelicans. Now, he’ll have to share touches with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Trey Murphy III. Given the competition for touches, it’s going to be tough for him to play to the level of his ADP this season.

Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Detroit Pistons

Snellings: Harris is a professional scorer who could, in theory, have a larger role with the Pistons than he’s had with the 76ers over the past several seasons. The problem, is, Harris doesn’t fit the rest of the Pistons’ rebuilding aesthetic. The other four Pistons starters are 22, 22, 21 and 20 years old. Harris is 32, and looks to be backed up by 19-year-old Ron Holland II, whom the Pistons drafted at No. 5 this season. I see a likelihood that Harris’ minutes could be crunched on a team whose best interest would be to let their young, future stars eat.